Victory Lap
What seemed only an idealistic dream a year ago has come to pass. Elections were held in Pakistan. Both of the main political parties took part. Musharraf has resigned. One of the intellectual leaders of the opposition to Musharraf’s military regime, Husain Haqqani, is now the Pakistani Ambassador to the United States.
But all is not well. As Haqqani points out in his book, Pakistani politics of the last half century shows a clear cyclical pattern: the military rules directly until things get so bad that they are ousted. Then they let a civilian nominally lead the Government while controlling it from behind the scenes. “Military rule by other means”, as Haqqani puts it.
We are this stage of the cycle now. Terrorist activities sponsored by the Pakistani Secret Service ISI are on the increase. Inflation and political uncertainty have wrecked the economy. We can predict based on the previous patterns that life for ordinary citizens will get so bad that the army will step in again to save the nation. And then the whole cycle will repeat itself.
But each epoch leaves Pakistan a little weaker and a step closer to disintegration. Ans the military takes control of a larger chunk of the Nation’s assets. Why should the world care? Because of nuclear weapons. And because Pakistan is the gateway to Central Asia, which is rapidly replacing Europe as the fulcrum of super power rivalries. The Afghanisan-Paklistan border remains the most dangerous part of the world.
Still, we are entitled to a little victory lap. An ignominious end to a dictator who once styled himself as the “Lincoln of Pakistan” is cause for celebration. It turns out that Musharraf was not even the Nixon of Pakistan. Although Nixon too resigned in disgrace under threat of impeachment, he had some substantial foreign policy acheivements by then. Musharraf leaves just chaos behind.
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